Cold winds blew in the Grand National Assembly of Türkiye

When President Erdoğan took the podium at the opening of Parliament, Özgür Özel and the NEW Party MPs left the Grand National Assembly of Türkiye. Erdoğan waited for the NEW Party members to leave the hall before speaking. Leaving the hall, Özel told journalists, 'We don't have time to waste listening to someone who attacks the CHP to change the agenda.'

New Party Chairman Özgür Özel and its MPs left the hall as President and AKP Chairman Recep Tayyip Erdoğan took the podium. Erdoğan waited for the New Party MPs to leave the hall before speaking.

We don't have time to listen to Erdoğan

In a statement to journalists after leaving the hall, Özel said, "We don't have time to waste listening to someone who changes his party's leadership and replaces it with an appointment that suits him, someone who imprisons our presidential candidate, someone who just this morning carried out an operation against the innocent Mersin Mayor in order to win the Union of Turkish Municipalities elections, someone who tries to march on the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality every day by threatening and poaching district municipal council members, someone who has allowed the poor to be plundered through a fund crisis and remained silent about it, and who once again attacks the CHP to change the agenda."

Mustafa Kemal Atatürk addressed [the people] as follows...

The highlights of Erdoğan's speech from the Parliament podium were as follows:

First and foremost, I commemorate with mercy the 115 members, above all, who, 106 years ago, after the Friday prayer performed at the Hacı Bayram Veli Mosque, proclaimed the will of our nation to the world from Ankara the heart of independence with prayers, takbirs, and the resolve and passion for independence, along with all our deputies who have served our nation worthily under this exalted roof until today and have passed away.

Once again, here, I ask mercy from the Almighty for all our martyrs who, for a thousand years in this geography, sacrificed their lives without blinking an eye for the survival of our nation, and for those among our veterans who have passed away. Right at the beginning of my words, I want to express with all my heart this truth: The only parliament in the world that has been honored with the title of 'gazi' twice is the Grand National Assembly of Türkiye. This assembly successfully led and directed the national struggle against the invaders who attempted to put shackles on the feet and a rope around the neck of our nation.

Look, the minutes of our Grand National Assembly of Türkiye between 1920 and 1923 are the most vivid witnesses of how Türkiye was made a homeland for the second time. The following words that Gazi Mustafa Kemal Atatürk uttered in 1921 at the opening of the second legislative year of the Grand National Assembly are a clear expression of the love of freedom that is in the very cells of our nation and of the historic mission of our parliament. In those painful days when the Turkish nation was squeezed between independence and annihilation, Gazi Mustafa Kemal, in his capacity as Speaker of the Assembly, addressed [the people] as follows.

Esteemed colleagues, let us once again recall the distances we have covered from the Armistice days, when the entire nation looked death in the eye, to this day, and the countless difficulties we have overcome. Since times whose beginning is unknown.

Our nation, which lives with the honor of independence, seemed to be heading toward the worst of ends through death, yet the voice of our ancestors, who called their children to rise up against enslavement, rose in our hearts and invited us to the final war of liberation. The days of despair and faint-heartedness are now far behind. While Your Exalted Assembly enters its second legislative year having shown the country the path to liberation, the true path, and having gathered the entire nation under its banner of independence I pray that the lights beginning to dawn on our horizon may be auspicious for a good morning in this unfortunate homeland of ours, which has seen so many disasters. Ninety-five years after this speech, which was frequently interrupted by applause, our Exalted Assembly once again fulfilled its duty of leading the nation. On the night of July 15, our Gazi Assembly, which defended the nation's trust under bombs, together with our nation that resisted the coup in squares, streets, and airports, passed that heavy test with a clean record.

On this occasion, I thank all our deputies who protected the nation's trust that night, and I say, may my Lord never again oblige this assembly to wage the same struggle. I specifically express the satisfaction I feel at addressing you in the General Assembly hall of the Gazi Assembly, whose past is so glorious and whose duty is so sublime.

The boundary between power and the market

Fatma Betül Sayan Kaya

The essence of the Fatma Betül Sayan Kaya affair is not a simple insider trading allegation, but a concentrated manifestation of a crisis of political trust. The core contradiction is this: a ruling party vice chair responsible for social policy is accused of earning over 2 billion ₺ in profit just before a financial crisis affecting millions of people yet her name does not appear on the regulatory agency's investigation list. This state of being "publicly accused but not formally investigated" is more destructive than the allegation itself, as it points to a structural crack in the institutional credibility of the regulatory body.

72 hours from allegation to resignation

On September 25, 2026, Yeni Parti (New Party) spokesperson Zeynel Emre publicly announced the following allegation at the Bahçelievler district congress: AKP Vice Chair and former Minister of Family and Social Policies Fatma Betül Sayan Kaya and her husband İlyas Kaya obtained an extraordinary profit exceeding 2 billion ₺ through transactions in Özata Denizcilik (OZATD) shares just before the "fund crisis" broke out.

The key data at the center of the allegation are as follows.

Party	Purchase price	Number of shares	Amount invested	Sale price	Amount cashed out
Fatma Betül Sayan Kaya	255 ₺	250000	~63.36 million ₺	4,482 ₺	~1.344 billion ₺
İlyas Kaya	255 ₺	150000	~99.69 million ₺	4,482 ₺	~826 million ₺

Total investment was approximately 163 million ₺, while the amount cashed out was approximately 2.17 billion ₺. That is roughly a 13-fold return, achieved in only about 5 months. Emre specifically drew attention to the timing: "Before September 16, as if something had been whispered in their ear, they withdrew this money one after another."

On the same day, Sayan Kaya announced on social media that she had requested her dismissal from all her duties from Erdoğan. On September 26, the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office applied an interim injunction on the couple's and their children's assets and imposed a travel ban.

Absence from the SPK investigation list

This is the most noteworthy detail of the affair and the centerpiece of critical analysis.

On the same date Sayan Kaya was publicly accused (September 25), the Capital Markets Board of Türkiye (SPK) published its official decision regarding Özata Denizcilik share transactions: criminal complaints were filed against 11 people, and Tera Yatırım and Tera Portföy were banned from the market for two years.

Neither Sayan Kaya nor İlyas Kaya is on this list of 11 people.

What does this mean? There are two possible interpretations, and whichever is true points to disturbing conclusions.

Interpretation One: The SPK's independent investigation has not yet reached the Kaya couple. If a ruling party vice chair can carry out a transaction of this scale in a single stock without attracting the regulatory agency's attention, then the SPK's market surveillance capacity must be seriously questioned. Even more disturbing is the question Emre raised in the same speech: "10 months ago, the Minister of Treasury and the SPK Chairman said there were suspicious transactions. Why has no one stopped it for 10 months?" If the regulatory agency had an early warning but did not act, it is difficult to escape the suspicion of selective enforcement.

Interpretation Two: The SPK investigated but took no action. This possibility is even more grave. If the SPK examined the Kaya couple's transactions but concluded that there was "no problem" the public would rightly ask: Then what is called a "problem"? If a transaction occurring days before a systemic financial crisis, investing 163 million ₺ and withdrawing 2.17 billion ₺, is not considered "suspicious" what exactly is the SPK's supervisory standard?

The structural asymmetry between power and information

Sayan Kaya's background adds a particular irony to this affair. Having served as Minister of Family and Social Policies (2016-2018), she was, before her resignation, the AKP's vice chair responsible for social policy. In other words, her political responsibility was to protect society's most vulnerable segments poor children, women victims of violence, families in need of social assistance.

In his accusation, Emre astutely captured this contradiction: "What did this lady do? ... This country made you a minister, a member of parliament; this nation held you in such high esteem was that not enough?"

But the real problem is not individual morality, but structural information asymmetry. As a sitting senior executive of a ruling party, Sayan Kaya occupies a special information position: even if she did not directly know the timetable of the "fund crisis" investigation, the political network she belongs to grants her information sensitivity far beyond that of an ordinary investor. When ordinary investors realized in September that their funds had suffered a heavy blow, a cash-out transaction of 2.17 billion ₺ had already been "accurately" completed.

Emre's question strikes precisely at this point: "Would a person who knows that no investment in Türkiye can yield nearly 20 percent profit not know what the distance between 255 lira and 4,482 lira means?"

Responsibility or evasion of accountability?

Sayan Kaya's resignation statement must be carefully examined. She wrote.

"I believe that the responsibility we assume in politics is not limited to legal responsibility alone... In order for the investigation and inquiry to be conducted independently and healthily, without being overshadowed by any shadow, I deemed it necessary to assume political responsibility."

The subtlety of this paragraph is that it packages the resignation not as a response to the allegation, but as a voluntary moral choice. The timing of the resignation is equally significant the same day the allegation was made public. That is, without waiting for any formal investigation or questioning, she said "I will leave first."

From a public relations perspective, this is the best strategy: withdrawing early before a public opinion storm forms avoids both the shame of a forced internal party purge and offers supporters a narrative that "she stepped down voluntarily to assist the investigation."

However, from an accountability perspective, resignation solves no substantive problem. Political responsibility can be assumed through resignation, but legal and moral responsibility do not disappear with it. Opposition leader Özgür Özel's reaction emphasizes precisely this: "You can't just resign and be done with it! Ms. Fatma, you will return the poor man's 2 billion lira!"

The deeper crisis of regulatory credibility

Perhaps the most disturbing aspect of this affair is not the conduct of a particular individual, but the systemic blind spot it has exposed.

While the Sayan Kaya affair was on the agenda, Türkiye was experiencing a larger-scale "fund crisis" storm. As of September 26, 51 people had been arrested in the related investigation. Both President Erdoğan and Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz described the problem as "a temporary difficulty in a limited area" and pledged that "whoever bears responsibility will account for it before the law."

However, if a ruling party vice chair publicly accused of profiting more than 2 billion ₺ from this crisis does not even appear on the regulatory agency's official investigation list, then these pledges that "everyone is equal before the law" face a serious test of trust.

This is not an event that can be reduced simply to "individual greed." It touches a much more fundamental question: In a market where information is power, does political position create a kind of implicit, unsupervised trading advantage? If so, does the SPK's supervisory framework not require a fundamental rethinking?

The real problem is not Fatma Betül Sayan Kaya

The ultimate course of this affair will depend on whether the SPK and judicial authorities initiate a formal investigation into the Kaya couple. However, whatever the outcome, the very fact that "the regulatory agency has not included a publicly accused political figure on its investigation list" creates a serious questioning of the fairness of the Turkish capital market.

Sayan Kaya's resignation is, at the individual level, a political damage limitation. But at the institutional level, it leaves behind a question more intricate than any individual behavior: When the boundary between the supervisor and the supervised becomes blurred enough to be "ignorable" how is market trust to be sustained?

The answer to this question is far more important than the personal fate of a former minister.

Türkiye and Israel trade collaboration

The Gap between embargo rhetoric and reality

Photo Julien Goettelmann on Pexels

On May 2, 2024, Türkiye announced that it had completely halted all trade relations with Israel. According to official statements, exports, imports, free zone trade, and transit trade were fully suspended, and Turkish-flagged and Israeli-flagged air and sea transportation were banned. However, international trade data, ship tracking systems, and independent research reveal that this embargo has remained largely on paper, with trade continuing through various indirect channels.

There is a massive gap between Türkiye's official data and Israel's official data

While the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) data shows no trade items with Israel after May 2, 2024, according to Trading Economics, which compiles the UN COMTRADE database, Israel's imports from Türkiye in 2025 were recorded at $2.12 billion. This figure places Türkiye as Israel's 10th largest import source, on par with the United Kingdom.

According to data from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), **exports from Türkiye to Israel in 2025 amounted to $924.1 million**. In just the January-February 2026 period, this figure reached $176.1 million.

The top product groups exported from Türkiye to Israel in 2025 were as follows.

Product Group	Amount (2025)
Electrical and electronic equipment	$283.17 million
Iron and steel	$235.43 million
Precious stones and metals	$177.52 million
Base metals	$183.2 million
Machinery and equipment	$172.8 million
Plastics and their products	$137.45 million
Textile products	$119.5 million

The "confidential country" category and the transparency problem

Murat Emir, Deputy Group Chair of the Yeni Party, drew attention to the "Confidential Country" heading in TURKSTAT's foreign trade statistics, opened under the pretext of "commercial secrecy." Noting that this category showed a volume of $2.1 billion for 2025, Emir asked, "Was the export to Israel recorded under this 'confidential country' item?"

The Ministry of Trade, however, denied these claims, asserting that the customs system is completely closed to Israel and that no trade transactions have been registered for 23 months. The Ministry labeled the claims based on Israeli data as "disinformation."

Oil shipments covert flow through Ceyhan Port

One of the most striking contradictions is in oil shipments. Despite Türkiye's embargo decision, Azerbaijani oil continues to be shipped from the Ceyhan terminal to Israel.

According to data compiled by Reuters from ship tracking systems, the amount of Azerbaijani oil sent from Ceyhan to Israel increased by 31% in 2025, reaching 94,000 barrels per day. This was recorded as the highest level in the last three years.

Oil sent from Azerbaijan via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline meets approximately 30% of Israel's oil needs.

The shadow fleet ships disabling signals

International investigations reveal in detail how the embargo is being circumvented. According to research conducted by Middle East Eye in collaboration with the "No Port for Genocide" campaign.

Covert crude oil shipments to Israel between May 2024 and December 2025.

57 covert crude oil shipments
Approximately 47 million barrels of oil
Shipments were carried out via Türkiye
Ships disabled their tracking systems (AIS), going into "dark" mode
Egypt's Port Said was reported as the false destination

Military material shipments.

13 military shipments in 2025 (ammunition, machine gun components, defense materials belonging to Elbit Systems)

Coal shipments.

8 covert coal shipments between October 2023 and February 2026
Total of 751,000 tons of South African coal

The role of Greek companies

The majority of covert shipments are carried out by Greek shipping companies. According to the research.

Companies Thenamaris and Kyklades increased their share of oil shipments after the embargo from approximately 22% to over 91%
Greek tankers circumvented Türkiye's Israel embargo via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline
Ships violated international maritime rules by reporting false destinations and disabling tracking systems

The Palestinian route claim

The Ministry of Trade argues that the trade appearing in Israeli records stems from shipments made to the Palestinian Authority. According to the Ministry.

Since Palestine has no port or customs of its own, shipments are technically made through Israeli ports
Shipments are carried out with the approval of the Palestinian Ministry of National Economy
There is approximately $50-60 million in monthly Palestinian trade.

However, Yeni Party's Emir claims that the Israeli statistical office does not include trade with the Palestinian Authority in the standard "Israeli foreign trade" tables, therefore the announced figures directly reflect Türkiye-Israel trade.

The Gap between official statements and industry data

Türkiye's Ministry of Trade maintains that the embargo is being fully implemented.

"Since May 2, 2024, trade with Israel has been zero. The customs system is closed."

However, international data and field research contradict this claim.

Source	Trade Volume
Türkiye's official statement	$0
UN COMTRADE (2025)	$2.12 billion
Israel CBS (2025)	$924.1 million
TURKSTAT "Confidential Country" item	$2.1 billion

Political consequences and contradictory messages

The claims that trade is continuing create a serious credibility problem in Türkiye's foreign policy.

While harsh rhetoric against Israel continues in public, the continuation of trade relations behind the scenes causes foreign policy to be perceived as "two-faced."
U.S. Ambassador to Ankara Tom Barrack, at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, stated "Türkiye and Israel will not fight each other" implying that a trade agreement between the two countries could be made in the "not-too-distant future."
While Türkiye is seeking an Interpol "Red Notice" for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, the continuation of billions of dollars in trade during the same period raises questions about the sincerity of Türkiye's support for the Palestinian cause.

Available data clearly demonstrates a deep chasm between Türkiye's "no trade with Israel" rhetoric and international trade data. Despite official statements.

UN COMTRADE data shows a $2.12 billion trade volume in 2025
Israeli official data records $924 million in exports in 2025
Ship tracking systems confirm that covert oil shipments from Ceyhan port to Israel are continuing
"Shadow fleet" operations conducted through Greek companies reveal that the embargo is being systematically circumvented
The appearance of $2.1 billion in TURKSTAT's "Confidential Country" category deepens the transparency problem

This contradiction raises serious questions about the sincerity of Türkiye's support for the Palestinian cause, its foreign policy credibility, and its commitment to international obligations. This chasm between harsh public rhetoric and the trade relations that continue in reality represents a significant test for the future stance and reputation of Turkish foreign policy.

Note: This article is based on publicly available trade data, shipping records, and reporting from various news sources. All figures are cited from their respective sources and are presented for informational purposes.