The Gap between embargo rhetoric and reality

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On May 2, 2024, Türkiye announced that it had completely halted all trade relations with Israel. According to official statements, exports, imports, free zone trade, and transit trade were fully suspended, and Turkish-flagged and Israeli-flagged air and sea transportation were banned. However, international trade data, ship tracking systems, and independent research reveal that this embargo has remained largely on paper, with trade continuing through various indirect channels.

There is a massive gap between Türkiye's official data and Israel's official data

While the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) data shows no trade items with Israel after May 2, 2024, according to Trading Economics, which compiles the UN COMTRADE database, Israel's imports from Türkiye in 2025 were recorded at $2.12 billion. This figure places Türkiye as Israel's 10th largest import source, on par with the United Kingdom.

According to data from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), **exports from Türkiye to Israel in 2025 amounted to $924.1 million**. In just the January-February 2026 period, this figure reached $176.1 million.

The top product groups exported from Türkiye to Israel in 2025 were as follows.

The "confidential country" category and the transparency problem

Murat Emir, Deputy Group Chair of the Yeni Party, drew attention to the "Confidential Country" heading in TURKSTAT's foreign trade statistics, opened under the pretext of "commercial secrecy." Noting that this category showed a volume of $2.1 billion for 2025, Emir asked, "Was the export to Israel recorded under this 'confidential country' item?"

The Ministry of Trade, however, denied these claims, asserting that the customs system is completely closed to Israel and that no trade transactions have been registered for 23 months. The Ministry labeled the claims based on Israeli data as "disinformation."

Oil shipments covert flow through Ceyhan Port

One of the most striking contradictions is in oil shipments. Despite Türkiye's embargo decision, Azerbaijani oil continues to be shipped from the Ceyhan terminal to Israel.

According to data compiled by Reuters from ship tracking systems, the amount of Azerbaijani oil sent from Ceyhan to Israel increased by 31% in 2025, reaching 94,000 barrels per day. This was recorded as the highest level in the last three years.

Oil sent from Azerbaijan via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline meets approximately 30% of Israel's oil needs.

The shadow fleet ships disabling signals

International investigations reveal in detail how the embargo is being circumvented. According to research conducted by Middle East Eye in collaboration with the "No Port for Genocide" campaign.

Covert crude oil shipments to Israel between May 2024 and December 2025.

• 57 covert crude oil shipments
• Approximately 47 million barrels of oil
• Shipments were carried out via Türkiye
• Ships disabled their tracking systems (AIS), going into "dark" mode
• Egypt's Port Said was reported as the false destination

Military material shipments.

• 13 military shipments in 2025 (ammunition, machine gun components, defense materials belonging to Elbit Systems)

Coal shipments.

• 8 covert coal shipments between October 2023 and February 2026
• Total of 751,000 tons of South African coal

The role of Greek companies

The majority of covert shipments are carried out by Greek shipping companies. According to the research.

• Companies Thenamaris and Kyklades increased their share of oil shipments after the embargo from approximately 22% to over 91%
• Greek tankers circumvented Türkiye's Israel embargo via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline
• Ships violated international maritime rules by reporting false destinations and disabling tracking systems

The Palestinian route claim

The Ministry of Trade argues that the trade appearing in Israeli records stems from shipments made to the Palestinian Authority. According to the Ministry.

• Since Palestine has no port or customs of its own, shipments are technically made through Israeli ports
• Shipments are carried out with the approval of the Palestinian Ministry of National Economy
• There is approximately $50-60 million in monthly Palestinian trade.

However, Yeni Party's Emir claims that the Israeli statistical office does not include trade with the Palestinian Authority in the standard "Israeli foreign trade" tables, therefore the announced figures directly reflect Türkiye-Israel trade.

The Gap between official statements and industry data

Türkiye's Ministry of Trade maintains that the embargo is being fully implemented.

"Since May 2, 2024, trade with Israel has been zero. The customs system is closed."

However, international data and field research contradict this claim.

Political consequences and contradictory messages

The claims that trade is continuing create a serious credibility problem in Türkiye's foreign policy.

1. While harsh rhetoric against Israel continues in public, the continuation of trade relations behind the scenes causes foreign policy to be perceived as "two-faced."
2. U.S. Ambassador to Ankara Tom Barrack, at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, stated "Türkiye and Israel will not fight each other" implying that a trade agreement between the two countries could be made in the "not-too-distant future."
3. While Türkiye is seeking an Interpol "Red Notice" for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, the continuation of billions of dollars in trade during the same period raises questions about the sincerity of Türkiye's support for the Palestinian cause.

Available data clearly demonstrates a deep chasm between Türkiye's "no trade with Israel" rhetoric and international trade data. Despite official statements.

• UN COMTRADE data shows a $2.12 billion trade volume in 2025
• Israeli official data records $924 million in exports in 2025
• Ship tracking systems confirm that covert oil shipments from Ceyhan port to Israel are continuing
• "Shadow fleet" operations conducted through Greek companies reveal that the embargo is being systematically circumvented
• The appearance of $2.1 billion in TURKSTAT's "Confidential Country" category deepens the transparency problem

This contradiction raises serious questions about the sincerity of Türkiye's support for the Palestinian cause, its foreign policy credibility, and its commitment to international obligations. This chasm between harsh public rhetoric and the trade relations that continue in reality represents a significant test for the future stance and reputation of Turkish foreign policy.

Note: This article is based on publicly available trade data, shipping records, and reporting from various news sources. All figures are cited from their respective sources and are presented for informational purposes.

The Neighbor's Fire

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As of 2026, with U.S. - Iran military tensions continuing to escalate, the Middle East has once again been pushed to the brink of war. As a neighbor sharing a land border of over 550 kilometers with Iran and heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy corridors, Türkiye though not a direct party to the conflict feels the scorching heat of this "neighbor's fire" acutely. The U.S. - Iran tension not only impacts Türkiye's already fragile economy through energy prices and trade routes but also poses serious challenges to Ankara's national strategies at the security and geopolitical levels.

The economic transmission mechanism from energy prices to the "Bread Basket"

Türkiye is heavily dependent on imported oil and natural gas, making its economy highly sensitive to fluctuations in international energy prices. The threat posed by the U.S. - Iran conflict to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz immediately triggered anxiety over energy supply within Türkiye. As early as the initial stages of the escalation, Turkish citizens formed long queues at gas stations out of fear of rising fuel prices and subsequent developments proved these concerns to be well-founded.

Looking at macroeconomic data, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek acknowledged that war-induced oil price increases have created "negative" pressure on the economy. According to official assessments, if the average oil price remains around $85 per barrel in 2026, Türkiye's inflation rate is expected to rise by an additional 3.6 to 4.4 percentage points, while economic growth is projected to slow by 0.6 to 1.5 percentage points. Given that annual inflation stood at 31.5% in February 2026, this additional burden is nothing short of pouring more weight onto an already strained system.

This macroeconomic pressure manifests itself in the most tangible and direct way possible through bread. In Turkish culture, "bread money" (ekmek parası) is synonymous with one's livelihood. However, the U.S.-Israel axis of military operations pushed up energy and flour prices, forcing bread prices to rise sharply. In Ankara, for example, the price of a loaf of sourdough bread jumped from 95 lira to 120 lira. After remaining unchanged for eight months, bread prices across the country were raised by nearly 17%. As local economists have pointed out, the effects of war are not a distant abstraction but a concrete reality squeezing every Turkish family's "bread basket."

The security and foreign policy dilemma between mediation, gedging, and precaution

Faced with a conflict on its doorstep, Türkiye's security and foreign policy posture reveals a complex and pragmatic character.

First, active mediation and diplomatic hedging form the core of its strategy. Türkiye has explicitly opposed any military intervention against Iran and has offered to play a mediating role between Washington and Tehran. Turkish foreign ministers have engaged in intensive diplomatic contacts with Iran and other regional actors, even offering to host potential U.S. - Iran talks on Turkish soil. This mediation effort reflects both a genuine desire to preserve regional stability and Türkiye's broader hedging strategy of balancing between East and West while enhancing its geopolitical influence.

Second, preventing a refugee influx and securing the border constitute Türkiye's most pressing concern. Having already experienced the massive refugee wave from the Syrian civil war, Türkiye is acutely aware of the socio-economic burden that a new wave from Iran could impose. Accordingly, Turkish officials have stated that they are "prepared to strengthen border security measures with Iran" including the construction of physical barriers if necessary. At the same time, Ankara has firmly denied allegations of "plans to invade Iranian territory," emphasizing its respect for its neighbor's sovereignty.

Finally, the Kurdish question has resurfaced as a critical strategic concern. Türkiye fears that Kurdish groups in Iran could capitalize on regional instability to grow stronger, potentially energizing separatist movements among Kurdish populations in Iraq, Syria, and within Türkiye itself. This is precisely why Ankara is eager to see the conflict de-escalate and end quickly, rather than drag on or expand.

In summary, the U.S. - Iran military conflict represents a "neighbor's fire with no winners" for Türkiye. Economically, it strikes at the country's fragile macroeconomic foundation through energy price shocks, directly raising the cost of living for ordinary citizens. In security terms, it brings direct threats ranging from potential refugee flows to the spillover of Kurdish-related instability. For these reasons, Türkiye is simultaneously pursuing a mediating role to lower tensions while reinforcing its border defenses to protect its own interests. The future trajectory of this conflict will continue to profoundly shape Türkiye's domestic and foreign policy in the period ahead.