When President Erdoğan took the podium at the opening of Parliament, Özgür Özel and the NEW Party MPs left the Grand National Assembly of Türkiye. Erdoğan waited for the NEW Party members to leave the hall before speaking. Leaving the hall, Özel told journalists, 'We don't have time to waste listening to someone who attacks the CHP to change the agenda.'

New Party Chairman Özgür Özel and its MPs left the hall as President and AKP Chairman Recep Tayyip Erdoğan took the podium. Erdoğan waited for the New Party MPs to leave the hall before speaking.

We don't have time to listen to Erdoğan

In a statement to journalists after leaving the hall, Özel said, "We don't have time to waste listening to someone who changes his party's leadership and replaces it with an appointment that suits him, someone who imprisons our presidential candidate, someone who just this morning carried out an operation against the innocent Mersin Mayor in order to win the Union of Turkish Municipalities elections, someone who tries to march on the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality every day by threatening and poaching district municipal council members, someone who has allowed the poor to be plundered through a fund crisis and remained silent about it, and who once again attacks the CHP to change the agenda."

Mustafa Kemal Atatürk addressed [the people] as follows...

The highlights of Erdoğan's speech from the Parliament podium were as follows:

First and foremost, I commemorate with mercy the 115 members, above all, who, 106 years ago, after the Friday prayer performed at the Hacı Bayram Veli Mosque, proclaimed the will of our nation to the world from Ankara the heart of independence with prayers, takbirs, and the resolve and passion for independence, along with all our deputies who have served our nation worthily under this exalted roof until today and have passed away.

Once again, here, I ask mercy from the Almighty for all our martyrs who, for a thousand years in this geography, sacrificed their lives without blinking an eye for the survival of our nation, and for those among our veterans who have passed away. Right at the beginning of my words, I want to express with all my heart this truth: The only parliament in the world that has been honored with the title of 'gazi' twice is the Grand National Assembly of Türkiye. This assembly successfully led and directed the national struggle against the invaders who attempted to put shackles on the feet and a rope around the neck of our nation.

Look, the minutes of our Grand National Assembly of Türkiye between 1920 and 1923 are the most vivid witnesses of how Türkiye was made a homeland for the second time. The following words that Gazi Mustafa Kemal Atatürk uttered in 1921 at the opening of the second legislative year of the Grand National Assembly are a clear expression of the love of freedom that is in the very cells of our nation and of the historic mission of our parliament. In those painful days when the Turkish nation was squeezed between independence and annihilation, Gazi Mustafa Kemal, in his capacity as Speaker of the Assembly, addressed [the people] as follows.

Esteemed colleagues, let us once again recall the distances we have covered from the Armistice days, when the entire nation looked death in the eye, to this day, and the countless difficulties we have overcome. Since times whose beginning is unknown.

Our nation, which lives with the honor of independence, seemed to be heading toward the worst of ends through death, yet the voice of our ancestors, who called their children to rise up against enslavement, rose in our hearts and invited us to the final war of liberation. The days of despair and faint-heartedness are now far behind. While Your Exalted Assembly enters its second legislative year having shown the country the path to liberation, the true path, and having gathered the entire nation under its banner of independence I pray that the lights beginning to dawn on our horizon may be auspicious for a good morning in this unfortunate homeland of ours, which has seen so many disasters. Ninety-five years after this speech, which was frequently interrupted by applause, our Exalted Assembly once again fulfilled its duty of leading the nation. On the night of July 15, our Gazi Assembly, which defended the nation's trust under bombs, together with our nation that resisted the coup in squares, streets, and airports, passed that heavy test with a clean record.

On this occasion, I thank all our deputies who protected the nation's trust that night, and I say, may my Lord never again oblige this assembly to wage the same struggle. I specifically express the satisfaction I feel at addressing you in the General Assembly hall of the Gazi Assembly, whose past is so glorious and whose duty is so sublime.

The Gap between embargo rhetoric and reality

Photo Julien Goettelmann on Pexels

On May 2, 2024, Türkiye announced that it had completely halted all trade relations with Israel. According to official statements, exports, imports, free zone trade, and transit trade were fully suspended, and Turkish-flagged and Israeli-flagged air and sea transportation were banned. However, international trade data, ship tracking systems, and independent research reveal that this embargo has remained largely on paper, with trade continuing through various indirect channels.

There is a massive gap between Türkiye's official data and Israel's official data

While the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) data shows no trade items with Israel after May 2, 2024, according to Trading Economics, which compiles the UN COMTRADE database, Israel's imports from Türkiye in 2025 were recorded at $2.12 billion. This figure places Türkiye as Israel's 10th largest import source, on par with the United Kingdom.

According to data from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), **exports from Türkiye to Israel in 2025 amounted to $924.1 million**. In just the January-February 2026 period, this figure reached $176.1 million.

The top product groups exported from Türkiye to Israel in 2025 were as follows.

The "confidential country" category and the transparency problem

Murat Emir, Deputy Group Chair of the Yeni Party, drew attention to the "Confidential Country" heading in TURKSTAT's foreign trade statistics, opened under the pretext of "commercial secrecy." Noting that this category showed a volume of $2.1 billion for 2025, Emir asked, "Was the export to Israel recorded under this 'confidential country' item?"

The Ministry of Trade, however, denied these claims, asserting that the customs system is completely closed to Israel and that no trade transactions have been registered for 23 months. The Ministry labeled the claims based on Israeli data as "disinformation."

Oil shipments covert flow through Ceyhan Port

One of the most striking contradictions is in oil shipments. Despite Türkiye's embargo decision, Azerbaijani oil continues to be shipped from the Ceyhan terminal to Israel.

According to data compiled by Reuters from ship tracking systems, the amount of Azerbaijani oil sent from Ceyhan to Israel increased by 31% in 2025, reaching 94,000 barrels per day. This was recorded as the highest level in the last three years.

Oil sent from Azerbaijan via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline meets approximately 30% of Israel's oil needs.

The shadow fleet ships disabling signals

International investigations reveal in detail how the embargo is being circumvented. According to research conducted by Middle East Eye in collaboration with the "No Port for Genocide" campaign.

Covert crude oil shipments to Israel between May 2024 and December 2025.

• 57 covert crude oil shipments
• Approximately 47 million barrels of oil
• Shipments were carried out via Türkiye
• Ships disabled their tracking systems (AIS), going into "dark" mode
• Egypt's Port Said was reported as the false destination

Military material shipments.

• 13 military shipments in 2025 (ammunition, machine gun components, defense materials belonging to Elbit Systems)

Coal shipments.

• 8 covert coal shipments between October 2023 and February 2026
• Total of 751,000 tons of South African coal

The role of Greek companies

The majority of covert shipments are carried out by Greek shipping companies. According to the research.

• Companies Thenamaris and Kyklades increased their share of oil shipments after the embargo from approximately 22% to over 91%
• Greek tankers circumvented Türkiye's Israel embargo via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline
• Ships violated international maritime rules by reporting false destinations and disabling tracking systems

The Palestinian route claim

The Ministry of Trade argues that the trade appearing in Israeli records stems from shipments made to the Palestinian Authority. According to the Ministry.

• Since Palestine has no port or customs of its own, shipments are technically made through Israeli ports
• Shipments are carried out with the approval of the Palestinian Ministry of National Economy
• There is approximately $50-60 million in monthly Palestinian trade.

However, Yeni Party's Emir claims that the Israeli statistical office does not include trade with the Palestinian Authority in the standard "Israeli foreign trade" tables, therefore the announced figures directly reflect Türkiye-Israel trade.

The Gap between official statements and industry data

Türkiye's Ministry of Trade maintains that the embargo is being fully implemented.

"Since May 2, 2024, trade with Israel has been zero. The customs system is closed."

However, international data and field research contradict this claim.

Political consequences and contradictory messages

The claims that trade is continuing create a serious credibility problem in Türkiye's foreign policy.

1. While harsh rhetoric against Israel continues in public, the continuation of trade relations behind the scenes causes foreign policy to be perceived as "two-faced."
2. U.S. Ambassador to Ankara Tom Barrack, at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, stated "Türkiye and Israel will not fight each other" implying that a trade agreement between the two countries could be made in the "not-too-distant future."
3. While Türkiye is seeking an Interpol "Red Notice" for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, the continuation of billions of dollars in trade during the same period raises questions about the sincerity of Türkiye's support for the Palestinian cause.

Available data clearly demonstrates a deep chasm between Türkiye's "no trade with Israel" rhetoric and international trade data. Despite official statements.

• UN COMTRADE data shows a $2.12 billion trade volume in 2025
• Israeli official data records $924 million in exports in 2025
• Ship tracking systems confirm that covert oil shipments from Ceyhan port to Israel are continuing
• "Shadow fleet" operations conducted through Greek companies reveal that the embargo is being systematically circumvented
• The appearance of $2.1 billion in TURKSTAT's "Confidential Country" category deepens the transparency problem

This contradiction raises serious questions about the sincerity of Türkiye's support for the Palestinian cause, its foreign policy credibility, and its commitment to international obligations. This chasm between harsh public rhetoric and the trade relations that continue in reality represents a significant test for the future stance and reputation of Turkish foreign policy.

Note: This article is based on publicly available trade data, shipping records, and reporting from various news sources. All figures are cited from their respective sources and are presented for informational purposes.

Turkish politics has recently been shaken by a rare earthquake. The historic fracture within the Republican People's Party (CHP), which has maintained its position as the main opposition for over two decades, has virtually redrawn the political map. The "New Party" (Yeni Parti), founded by Özgür Özel after he was ousted from the CHP leadership, has quickly become the second-largest power in parliament, causing a reshuffling of the cards in the race for power. So, does this new political entity have the potential to end President Erdoğan's grip on power that has lasted for over two decades?

The Historic Rift in the CHP and the Birth of the New Party

To understand the process, we need to look at the recent past. Taking over the leadership of the CHP in 2023, Özgür Özel brought a breeze of renewal to the party, and this synergy enabled the CHP to surpass the ruling AK Party and become the leading party in the March 2024 local elections for the first time in 22 years. Retaining and winning many metropolitan cities, especially Istanbul, had allowed hopes to blossom on the opposition front.

However, Özel's removal from the chairmanship by a court decision in May and the reinstatement of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu—who had led the party to many defeats in the past—broke the camel's back. Following this process, which many independent observers and human rights organizations interpreted as the "weaponization of the justice system" Özel charted his own path and founded the "New Party" on July 24th.

Splitting parties is not a new phenomenon in Turkish politics. But what made this split historic was its sheer scale. Following Özgür Özel's call, 90 of the CHP's 135 MPs defected to the New Party. While the CHP shrank to the fifth-largest party in parliament with 44 seats, the New Party suddenly took the main opposition seat. Moreover, the fact that Ekrem İmamoğlu—the popular political figure who declared his second victory in Istanbul in 2024 and is currently in the crosshairs of a political ban due to ongoing lawsuits—left his 17-year CHP past behind to join the New Party completely changed the political balance. Polls show the CHP's vote share plummeting below 5%, while the New Party has soared above 30%, making it the AK Party's most serious rival.

Political Balances and 2028 Scenarios

Technically, President Erdoğan's current term expires in 2028, and according to the constitution, parliament must call an early election for him to run again. Many experts expect exactly this to happen. In a potential election, the main factor determining the New Party's chances will be its ability to build a broad "coalition."

At first glance, a divided opposition might seem to benefit the ruling party. For the New Party to overcome this disadvantage, it must go beyond the secular and social democratic base it inherited from the CHP. It needs to establish a wider alliance bloc that encompasses the center-right, nationalists, and Kurdish voters. However, the government's potential reintroduction of a peace process with the PKK carries the risk of detaching actors like the DEM Party from the opposition bloc and further fragmenting it. This situation will be one of the biggest political tests ahead for the New Party.

The Economic Picture and Historical Repetition

In the shadow of political turmoil, the Turkish economy is also facing a tough test. The Central Bank raising its year-end inflation target from 16% to 24%, the sharp 6% drop in the stock market following Özgür Özel's removal from the CHP leadership, and the Turkish Lira's continued slide against the dollar are all factors weakening the government's hand. Judicial crackdowns spooking investors and this fragility in the economy create a significant advantage for the opposition.

On the other hand, it is also possible to draw a historical parallel. The Democrat Party, which broke away from the CHP in 1946, marched to power just four years later, in 1950. The leadership profile of Özgür Özel, who revived the opposition after the disappointment of 2023, could provide the momentum the New Party needs to repeat this history.

A Judicial Vise or a March to Power?

The rise of the New Party has inevitably entered the radar of both the government and the judiciary. The preparation of a summary of proceedings against Özgür Özel on bribery allegations and the request to lift his parliamentary immunity just two weeks after his party's establishment are harbingers of the storm on the horizon.

However, political history shows that pressure and crackdowns do not always yield the desired results. President Erdoğan's own political adventure did not end with the prison sentence he received while serving as the Mayor of Istanbul in the 1990s; on the contrary, it carried him to the Prime Ministry in 2003 and a twenty-year rule thereafter.

If the New Party can withstand the judicial and political pressures, gather the divided opposition under a broad umbrella, and correctly channel the social reaction created by the economic crisis, a potential early election in the coming years could set the stage for a change of hands after a two-decade-long rule.

Contemporary Türkiye is currently navigating one of the most critical junctures in its republican history. The prolonged convergence of political and economic crises renders the sociological metaphor of the "final exit before the bridge" increasingly salient. While the Justice and Development Party (AKP) administration's two-decade tenure initially garnered public support through paradigms of economic growth and institutional reform, the policy trajectories ultimately adopted have driven the nation into a profound systemic impasse.

Photo Craig Adderley on Pexels

Macroeconomic unorthodoxy and deep poverty

A primary locus of criticism regarding the incumbent government involves its departure from rational macroeconomic principles. The persistent application of unorthodox economic theses fundamentally incongruent with universal economic science—most notably the assertion that "interest rates are the cause and inflation is the result"—has precipitated a historic depreciation of the Turkish Lira (₺). Consequently, Türkiye is currently experiencing not merely chronic inflation, but a severe structural reality of deep poverty.

Amidst the erosion of the middle class and a precipitous decline in purchasing power, fundamental necessities such as adequate housing and nutrition have been relegated to the status of luxury. As lower-income demographics struggle for basic subsistence, income inequality has widened to unprecedented levels within the republic's history.

Democratic erosion and the rule of law

This economic degradation is not an incidental byproduct; rather, it is a direct manifestation of institutional decay and democratic backsliding. The de facto eradication of the separation of powers and the centralization of authority under the Presidential Government System have effectively dismantled systemic checks and balances.

Within this trajectory, freedom of the press has sustained the most severe damage. Independent journalists endeavoring to inform the public regarding governmental missteps, corruption allegations, or the true magnitude of the economic crisis face systematic suppression through detentions, incarcerations, and censorship legislation. The press's normative function as the Fourth Estate has been largely supplanted by a governmental echo chamber. The systemic conflation of journalistic activity with ambiguous legal charges—such as "terrorism" or "inciting public hatred and enmity"—has emerged as the most coercive instrument suppressing freedom of expression.

The judicialization of politics and interference with the electorate's will

Free elections and a fair competitive environment, the foundational prerequisites of any democratic system, have been severely compromised by the politicization of the judiciary. The administration's concerted efforts to neutralize its most formidable political adversaries via judicial mechanisms—in order to mitigate the risk of electoral defeat—constitute a profound regression in the nation's political history.

The strategic deployment of unfounded indictments, political bans, and direct penal sentences to sideline opposition leaders and municipal mayors who possess significant public backing and the electoral potential to challenge President Erdoğan represents an intervention not merely against these individuals, but against the democratic will of millions of voters. The instrumentalization of the judiciary to eliminate political competition serves as the most explicit indicator of Türkiye's profound detachment from universal legal norms.

Türkiye is compelled to break free from this self-perpetuating cycle of economic devastation, systemic lawlessness, and authoritarianism. The accumulating societal grievances and the demand for change across diverse demographic strata indicate an urgent imperative to return to the nation's democratic foundations. Achieving economic prosperity is inherently unfeasible within a paradigm where the rule of law is absent, press freedom is curtailed, and political competitors are coerced with incarceration. The impending epoch constitutes the "final exit"—a critical threshold where Türkiye will either recalibrate its trajectory toward contemporary democracy or descend further into this authoritarian tunnel.