Climate Change, the Rising Value of Wheat, and Agricultural Policies in Türkiye

Photo Mete Kaan Özdilek on Pexels

Wheat has been an indispensable part of our tables and one of the fundamental building blocks of civilizations throughout human history. Especially in lands like Türkiye, historically the cradle of agriculture, the importance of wheat is not only economic but also cultural and strategic. Anatolian lands, with their fertile nature, have grown wheat abundantly for centuries and met not only their own needs but also those of surrounding geographies.

Today, however, alongside global threats like climate change and water scarcity shaking the world, wrong directions in agricultural policies specific to our country have put wheat production into a serious bottleneck. Recent studies show that climate change could triple global wheat prices, and for Türkiye, this is not just a price increase but also a food security and development issue.

The Strategic Importance of Wheat and the Impact of Climate Change

A recent study published in the journal Earth's Future reveals that if the global temperature increase reaches 3 degrees, wheat prices could reach three times their average level in the 2010s. This frightening picture shows that 74% of the fluctuations in global wheat prices are linked to severe water scarcity. Wheat is highly sensitive to simultaneous drought events.

Climate models predict that with rising global temperatures, wheat farming areas experiencing water scarcity will expand. It is warned that by the end of the century, if adequate measures are not taken, nearly 60% of current planting areas could face the risk of severe water scarcity.

Decreasing Wheat Production in Türkiye and Policy Errors

While the global wheat supply is under the threat of the climate crisis, it is essential for Türkiye to protect and increase its own production. Unfortunately, with the general decline of agriculture in Türkiye, wheat production is also on a downward trend. This situation cannot be explained solely as a consequence of climate; it is also a direct reflection of the wrong agricultural policies implemented.

Policies implemented for years have alienated the farmer from their land and caused input costs (fertilizer, diesel, seeds) to become unbearable. Import-based approaches have left the domestic producer unprotected and wasted the potential of Anatolia's fertile lands. The inadequacy of the government's agricultural support policies and unplanned production models have damaged Türkiye's status as a self-sufficient agricultural country.

Increasing Production and Development

A decrease in wheat production does not merely mean an increase in bread prices. It also means the weakening of agriculture-based industry, the deepening of poverty in rural areas, and an increase in the country's foreign dependency.

However, Türkiye's climate conditions and soil structure, when supported by the right policies, are suitable for highly efficient wheat production. Increasing wheat production is a critical step for raising agricultural output, ensuring rural development, and ultimately strengthening the national economy. A Türkiye that produces its own wheat, and even exports the surplus, will have both ensured its food security and strengthened its hand in international markets.

In this period when the climate crisis is at the door, Türkiye needs to urgently review its agricultural policies and take sustainable and supportive steps that put the domestic producer at the center. Because wheat is not just a plant; it is the cornerstone of the country's development.

 A Roadmap for the First 100 Days After Political Transition

Strategic Vision and Institutional Preparation

The planning spirit of the State Planning Organization (SPO), which holds the institutional memory of the past, must be repositioned at the core of agricultural policies. The 100-day action plan must include immediate measures and structural reforms aimed at ensuring supply security in agriculture.

First 100-Day Action Plan

Agricultural Inventory: Establishing a digital agricultural and soil inventory nationwide.

(Expected Impact: Planned production and prevention of resource waste.)

Cost Management: Restructuring agricultural subsidies for fertilizers, fuel, and seeds.

(Expected Impact: Alleviating the input costs of producers.)

Rural Employment: Cooperative incentives to retain the young population in rural areas.

(Expected Impact: Slowing down the rural-to-urban migration.)

Photo by Randy Fath on Unsplash

Implementation Model: A Vision from the Past

The collective and productive spirit of the Village Institutes must be combined with today’s modern agricultural technologies. The model below synthesizes these two perspectives.

Model: Sustainable Agricultural Development Network

1. Data-Driven Planning: Digitalizing agricultural production with an SPO vision.

2. Local Cooperatives: Ensuring producer-oriented market access.

3. Education and Technology: Transferring modern agricultural techniques to producers.

Conclusion and Future Projection

The agricultural sector in Türkiye is not merely an economic policy, but also a matter of national security and independence. With a comprehensive transformation, rural areas can once again become centers of attraction.