Climate Change, the Rising Value of Wheat, and Agricultural Policies in Türkiye
Wheat has been an indispensable part of our tables and one of the fundamental building blocks of civilizations throughout human history. Especially in lands like Türkiye, historically the cradle of agriculture, the importance of wheat is not only economic but also cultural and strategic. Anatolian lands, with their fertile nature, have grown wheat abundantly for centuries and met not only their own needs but also those of surrounding geographies.
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| Photo Mete Kaan Özdilek on Pexels |
Today, however, alongside global threats like climate change and water scarcity shaking the world, wrong directions in agricultural policies specific to our country have put wheat production into a serious bottleneck. Recent studies show that climate change could triple global wheat prices, and for Türkiye, this is not just a price increase but also a food security and development issue.
The Strategic Importance of Wheat and the Impact of Climate Change
A recent study published in the journal Earth's Future reveals that if the global temperature increase reaches 3 degrees, wheat prices could reach three times their average level in the 2010s. This frightening picture shows that 74% of the fluctuations in global wheat prices are linked to severe water scarcity. Wheat is highly sensitive to simultaneous drought events.
Climate models predict that with rising global temperatures, wheat farming areas experiencing water scarcity will expand. It is warned that by the end of the century, if adequate measures are not taken, nearly 60% of current planting areas could face the risk of severe water scarcity.
Decreasing Wheat Production in Türkiye and Policy Errors
While the global wheat supply is under the threat of the climate crisis, it is essential for Türkiye to protect and increase its own production. Unfortunately, with the general decline of agriculture in Türkiye, wheat production is also on a downward trend. This situation cannot be explained solely as a consequence of climate; it is also a direct reflection of the wrong agricultural policies implemented.
Policies implemented for years have alienated the farmer from their land and caused input costs (fertilizer, diesel, seeds) to become unbearable. Import-based approaches have left the domestic producer unprotected and wasted the potential of Anatolia's fertile lands. The inadequacy of the government's agricultural support policies and unplanned production models have damaged Türkiye's status as a self-sufficient agricultural country.
Increasing Production and Development
A decrease in wheat production does not merely mean an increase in bread prices. It also means the weakening of agriculture-based industry, the deepening of poverty in rural areas, and an increase in the country's foreign dependency.
However, Türkiye's climate conditions and soil structure, when supported by the right policies, are suitable for highly efficient wheat production. Increasing wheat production is a critical step for raising agricultural output, ensuring rural development, and ultimately strengthening the national economy. A Türkiye that produces its own wheat, and even exports the surplus, will have both ensured its food security and strengthened its hand in international markets.
In this period when the climate crisis is at the door, Türkiye needs to urgently review its agricultural policies and take sustainable and supportive steps that put the domestic producer at the center. Because wheat is not just a plant; it is the cornerstone of the country's development.