The Neighbor's Fire

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As of 2026, with U.S. - Iran military tensions continuing to escalate, the Middle East has once again been pushed to the brink of war. As a neighbor sharing a land border of over 550 kilometers with Iran and heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy corridors, Türkiye though not a direct party to the conflict feels the scorching heat of this "neighbor's fire" acutely. The U.S. - Iran tension not only impacts Türkiye's already fragile economy through energy prices and trade routes but also poses serious challenges to Ankara's national strategies at the security and geopolitical levels.

The economic transmission mechanism from energy prices to the "Bread Basket"

Türkiye is heavily dependent on imported oil and natural gas, making its economy highly sensitive to fluctuations in international energy prices. The threat posed by the U.S. - Iran conflict to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz immediately triggered anxiety over energy supply within Türkiye. As early as the initial stages of the escalation, Turkish citizens formed long queues at gas stations out of fear of rising fuel prices and subsequent developments proved these concerns to be well-founded.

Looking at macroeconomic data, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek acknowledged that war-induced oil price increases have created "negative" pressure on the economy. According to official assessments, if the average oil price remains around $85 per barrel in 2026, Türkiye's inflation rate is expected to rise by an additional 3.6 to 4.4 percentage points, while economic growth is projected to slow by 0.6 to 1.5 percentage points. Given that annual inflation stood at 31.5% in February 2026, this additional burden is nothing short of pouring more weight onto an already strained system.

This macroeconomic pressure manifests itself in the most tangible and direct way possible through bread. In Turkish culture, "bread money" (ekmek parası) is synonymous with one's livelihood. However, the U.S.-Israel axis of military operations pushed up energy and flour prices, forcing bread prices to rise sharply. In Ankara, for example, the price of a loaf of sourdough bread jumped from 95 lira to 120 lira. After remaining unchanged for eight months, bread prices across the country were raised by nearly 17%. As local economists have pointed out, the effects of war are not a distant abstraction but a concrete reality squeezing every Turkish family's "bread basket."

The security and foreign policy dilemma between mediation, gedging, and precaution

Faced with a conflict on its doorstep, Türkiye's security and foreign policy posture reveals a complex and pragmatic character.

First, active mediation and diplomatic hedging form the core of its strategy. Türkiye has explicitly opposed any military intervention against Iran and has offered to play a mediating role between Washington and Tehran. Turkish foreign ministers have engaged in intensive diplomatic contacts with Iran and other regional actors, even offering to host potential U.S. - Iran talks on Turkish soil. This mediation effort reflects both a genuine desire to preserve regional stability and Türkiye's broader hedging strategy of balancing between East and West while enhancing its geopolitical influence.

Second, preventing a refugee influx and securing the border constitute Türkiye's most pressing concern. Having already experienced the massive refugee wave from the Syrian civil war, Türkiye is acutely aware of the socio-economic burden that a new wave from Iran could impose. Accordingly, Turkish officials have stated that they are "prepared to strengthen border security measures with Iran" including the construction of physical barriers if necessary. At the same time, Ankara has firmly denied allegations of "plans to invade Iranian territory," emphasizing its respect for its neighbor's sovereignty.

Finally, the Kurdish question has resurfaced as a critical strategic concern. Türkiye fears that Kurdish groups in Iran could capitalize on regional instability to grow stronger, potentially energizing separatist movements among Kurdish populations in Iraq, Syria, and within Türkiye itself. This is precisely why Ankara is eager to see the conflict de-escalate and end quickly, rather than drag on or expand.

In summary, the U.S. - Iran military conflict represents a "neighbor's fire with no winners" for Türkiye. Economically, it strikes at the country's fragile macroeconomic foundation through energy price shocks, directly raising the cost of living for ordinary citizens. In security terms, it brings direct threats ranging from potential refugee flows to the spillover of Kurdish-related instability. For these reasons, Türkiye is simultaneously pursuing a mediating role to lower tensions while reinforcing its border defenses to protect its own interests. The future trajectory of this conflict will continue to profoundly shape Türkiye's domestic and foreign policy in the period ahead.

The agenda in Türkiye changes very rapidly, or there is a desire by some to change it. This is because the deep economic crisis, poverty, and even hunger are creating a massive crisis in the country. The government is busy constantly shifting the agenda to deflect incoming criticism in other directions, but it takes no steps to solve these problems.

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The unfathomable magnitude of the foreign debt, the interest being paid, and the fact that these debts will also have to be paid by future generations are opening deep wounds in the country. Then I sit and think about it, and I conclude that these things are actually being done intentionally. Because no sane person would knowingly surrender the country to such deep poverty and debt. Only those who are someone else's pawn, who commit treason against the homeland, could consciously take these steps.

I believe we are witnessing the final days of this filthy clique that uses the country's resources and engages in shady dealings to amass a fortune of a few hundred billion dollars. It is precisely because they are living their final days that they exhibit such an aggressive attitude. The government, wanting to eliminate the opposition or design it according to its own desires, is engaging in certain shady dealings and trying to do political engineering because it realizes it cannot succeed. However, since these actions have no traction within society, it seems highly unlikely they will succeed.

Ruling powers that lose the support of society are doomed to lose. Parties that gain the support of society will, one way or another, definitely come to power one day and rule the country. Of course, the important issue here, which is also the expectation of society, will be to question the shady dealings of the previous government, have them investigated by an independent judiciary, and prosecute if there is any irregularity. The shady dealings of the government will definitely come to light one day, and steps must be taken to ensure they are not repeated.

Leaving the administration of the state to the initiative of a single person means being dragged into the abyss. Governments that lack the capacity, education, and equipment to rule a country, and that do not feel a sense of belonging to the country, absolutely must not be in charge of the administration. Otherwise, the example of Türkiye should be examined and a lesson must be learned.

A single person must never be the decision-making authority. The Republic of Türkiye is governed by democracy, and the Members of Parliament in the Grand National Assembly of Türkiye (TBMM), who are elected by the public to act as their representatives, should be the authority taking the decisions. That is to say, collective wisdom always develops a country and brings it to prosperity. Countries that are not governed by collective wisdom become trapped in darkness.

Türkiye is not like an Arab country. Neither the society nor the form of government resembles those in Arab countries. Even if it wanted to, it couldn't, because the abundant oil resources found in Arab countries unfortunately do not exist in Türkiye. The administrations of Arab countries (especially those ruled by monarchy) distribute resources as much as possible to keep the society satisfied. They share the oil revenues with the public; otherwise, the public would revolt, and the monarchy would collapse. However, since Türkiye cannot distribute an oil resource it does not possess to the public, it cannot be like Arab countries, and indeed it should not be.

Therefore, the Republic of Türkiye must return to its founding principles and state administration, and it must have robustly functioning institutions. Otherwise, it will sink to the absolute bottom of darkness. Since there will be no deeper bottom left to hit after a while anyway, a rebellion will break out in society.

"The Republic of Türkiye, devotedly founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk and his comrades-in-arms, will stand forever."

The Turkish society has no problems whatsoever with the Kurdish society. They have lived together without issues under the same roof for centuries and have established neighborhood and kinship relations. That is to say, a Kurdish youth is not subjected to discrimination in the Republic of Türkiye; just like every citizen, they can benefit from all rights. Education, social, justice...

No distinction is made based on language, religion, or race, and everyone is equal before the law.

Long live the Republic, long live Liberty!