The Gap between embargo rhetoric and reality

Photo Julien Goettelmann on Pexels

On May 2, 2024, Türkiye announced that it had completely halted all trade relations with Israel. According to official statements, exports, imports, free zone trade, and transit trade were fully suspended, and Turkish-flagged and Israeli-flagged air and sea transportation were banned. However, international trade data, ship tracking systems, and independent research reveal that this embargo has remained largely on paper, with trade continuing through various indirect channels.

There is a massive gap between Türkiye's official data and Israel's official data

While the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) data shows no trade items with Israel after May 2, 2024, according to Trading Economics, which compiles the UN COMTRADE database, Israel's imports from Türkiye in 2025 were recorded at $2.12 billion. This figure places Türkiye as Israel's 10th largest import source, on par with the United Kingdom.

According to data from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), **exports from Türkiye to Israel in 2025 amounted to $924.1 million**. In just the January-February 2026 period, this figure reached $176.1 million.

The top product groups exported from Türkiye to Israel in 2025 were as follows.

The "confidential country" category and the transparency problem

Murat Emir, Deputy Group Chair of the Yeni Party, drew attention to the "Confidential Country" heading in TURKSTAT's foreign trade statistics, opened under the pretext of "commercial secrecy." Noting that this category showed a volume of $2.1 billion for 2025, Emir asked, "Was the export to Israel recorded under this 'confidential country' item?"

The Ministry of Trade, however, denied these claims, asserting that the customs system is completely closed to Israel and that no trade transactions have been registered for 23 months. The Ministry labeled the claims based on Israeli data as "disinformation."

Oil shipments covert flow through Ceyhan Port

One of the most striking contradictions is in oil shipments. Despite Türkiye's embargo decision, Azerbaijani oil continues to be shipped from the Ceyhan terminal to Israel.

According to data compiled by Reuters from ship tracking systems, the amount of Azerbaijani oil sent from Ceyhan to Israel increased by 31% in 2025, reaching 94,000 barrels per day. This was recorded as the highest level in the last three years.

Oil sent from Azerbaijan via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline meets approximately 30% of Israel's oil needs.

The shadow fleet ships disabling signals

International investigations reveal in detail how the embargo is being circumvented. According to research conducted by Middle East Eye in collaboration with the "No Port for Genocide" campaign.

Covert crude oil shipments to Israel between May 2024 and December 2025.

• 57 covert crude oil shipments
• Approximately 47 million barrels of oil
• Shipments were carried out via Türkiye
• Ships disabled their tracking systems (AIS), going into "dark" mode
• Egypt's Port Said was reported as the false destination

Military material shipments.

• 13 military shipments in 2025 (ammunition, machine gun components, defense materials belonging to Elbit Systems)

Coal shipments.

• 8 covert coal shipments between October 2023 and February 2026
• Total of 751,000 tons of South African coal

The role of Greek companies

The majority of covert shipments are carried out by Greek shipping companies. According to the research.

• Companies Thenamaris and Kyklades increased their share of oil shipments after the embargo from approximately 22% to over 91%
• Greek tankers circumvented Türkiye's Israel embargo via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline
• Ships violated international maritime rules by reporting false destinations and disabling tracking systems

The Palestinian route claim

The Ministry of Trade argues that the trade appearing in Israeli records stems from shipments made to the Palestinian Authority. According to the Ministry.

• Since Palestine has no port or customs of its own, shipments are technically made through Israeli ports
• Shipments are carried out with the approval of the Palestinian Ministry of National Economy
• There is approximately $50-60 million in monthly Palestinian trade.

However, Yeni Party's Emir claims that the Israeli statistical office does not include trade with the Palestinian Authority in the standard "Israeli foreign trade" tables, therefore the announced figures directly reflect Türkiye-Israel trade.

The Gap between official statements and industry data

Türkiye's Ministry of Trade maintains that the embargo is being fully implemented.

"Since May 2, 2024, trade with Israel has been zero. The customs system is closed."

However, international data and field research contradict this claim.

Political consequences and contradictory messages

The claims that trade is continuing create a serious credibility problem in Türkiye's foreign policy.

1. While harsh rhetoric against Israel continues in public, the continuation of trade relations behind the scenes causes foreign policy to be perceived as "two-faced."
2. U.S. Ambassador to Ankara Tom Barrack, at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, stated "Türkiye and Israel will not fight each other" implying that a trade agreement between the two countries could be made in the "not-too-distant future."
3. While Türkiye is seeking an Interpol "Red Notice" for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, the continuation of billions of dollars in trade during the same period raises questions about the sincerity of Türkiye's support for the Palestinian cause.

Available data clearly demonstrates a deep chasm between Türkiye's "no trade with Israel" rhetoric and international trade data. Despite official statements.

• UN COMTRADE data shows a $2.12 billion trade volume in 2025
• Israeli official data records $924 million in exports in 2025
• Ship tracking systems confirm that covert oil shipments from Ceyhan port to Israel are continuing
• "Shadow fleet" operations conducted through Greek companies reveal that the embargo is being systematically circumvented
• The appearance of $2.1 billion in TURKSTAT's "Confidential Country" category deepens the transparency problem

This contradiction raises serious questions about the sincerity of Türkiye's support for the Palestinian cause, its foreign policy credibility, and its commitment to international obligations. This chasm between harsh public rhetoric and the trade relations that continue in reality represents a significant test for the future stance and reputation of Turkish foreign policy.

Note: This article is based on publicly available trade data, shipping records, and reporting from various news sources. All figures are cited from their respective sources and are presented for informational purposes.

The significant decline in pension amounts in Türkiye compared to the past is not a coincidence or merely a current inflation problem. This situation is the direct mathematical consequence of systematic legal changes made to the social security system in 1999 and especially in 2008 to balance public finances.

Three fundamental structural changes lie behind the current economic picture and the policies implemented.

The agenda in Türkiye changes very rapidly, or there is a desire by some to change it. This is because the deep economic crisis, poverty, and even hunger are creating a massive crisis in the country. The government is busy constantly shifting the agenda to deflect incoming criticism in other directions, but it takes no steps to solve these problems.

Photo Talha Uğuz on Pexels

The unfathomable magnitude of the foreign debt, the interest being paid, and the fact that these debts will also have to be paid by future generations are opening deep wounds in the country. Then I sit and think about it, and I conclude that these things are actually being done intentionally. Because no sane person would knowingly surrender the country to such deep poverty and debt. Only those who are someone else's pawn, who commit treason against the homeland, could consciously take these steps.

I believe we are witnessing the final days of this filthy clique that uses the country's resources and engages in shady dealings to amass a fortune of a few hundred billion dollars. It is precisely because they are living their final days that they exhibit such an aggressive attitude. The government, wanting to eliminate the opposition or design it according to its own desires, is engaging in certain shady dealings and trying to do political engineering because it realizes it cannot succeed. However, since these actions have no traction within society, it seems highly unlikely they will succeed.

Ruling powers that lose the support of society are doomed to lose. Parties that gain the support of society will, one way or another, definitely come to power one day and rule the country. Of course, the important issue here, which is also the expectation of society, will be to question the shady dealings of the previous government, have them investigated by an independent judiciary, and prosecute if there is any irregularity. The shady dealings of the government will definitely come to light one day, and steps must be taken to ensure they are not repeated.

Leaving the administration of the state to the initiative of a single person means being dragged into the abyss. Governments that lack the capacity, education, and equipment to rule a country, and that do not feel a sense of belonging to the country, absolutely must not be in charge of the administration. Otherwise, the example of Türkiye should be examined and a lesson must be learned.

A single person must never be the decision-making authority. The Republic of Türkiye is governed by democracy, and the Members of Parliament in the Grand National Assembly of Türkiye (TBMM), who are elected by the public to act as their representatives, should be the authority taking the decisions. That is to say, collective wisdom always develops a country and brings it to prosperity. Countries that are not governed by collective wisdom become trapped in darkness.

Türkiye is not like an Arab country. Neither the society nor the form of government resembles those in Arab countries. Even if it wanted to, it couldn't, because the abundant oil resources found in Arab countries unfortunately do not exist in Türkiye. The administrations of Arab countries (especially those ruled by monarchy) distribute resources as much as possible to keep the society satisfied. They share the oil revenues with the public; otherwise, the public would revolt, and the monarchy would collapse. However, since Türkiye cannot distribute an oil resource it does not possess to the public, it cannot be like Arab countries, and indeed it should not be.

Therefore, the Republic of Türkiye must return to its founding principles and state administration, and it must have robustly functioning institutions. Otherwise, it will sink to the absolute bottom of darkness. Since there will be no deeper bottom left to hit after a while anyway, a rebellion will break out in society.

"The Republic of Türkiye, devotedly founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk and his comrades-in-arms, will stand forever."

The Turkish society has no problems whatsoever with the Kurdish society. They have lived together without issues under the same roof for centuries and have established neighborhood and kinship relations. That is to say, a Kurdish youth is not subjected to discrimination in the Republic of Türkiye; just like every citizen, they can benefit from all rights. Education, social, justice...

No distinction is made based on language, religion, or race, and everyone is equal before the law.

Long live the Republic, long live Liberty!

Recently in Türkiye, the government's increasing pressure and harsh stance against free and independent journalists have been heavily criticized, but the government is not backing down from this attitude. When you criticize bad governance or pursue corruption, they detain you through law enforcement or throw you in jail. In other words, they do not even allow you to practice your profession.

However, the job of journalists is to report everything, good and bad, to the public objectively and to conduct research on their behalf. Because the public might not investigate a topic themselves, and this is the duty of journalists. Yet, in Türkiye, this has become much more difficult for true journalists trying to do their jobs.

The government, forced to release some journalists thanks to public pressure, wants to detain and arrest that person again at the first opportunity. That is to say, they do not want any journalist who does their job properly. This is because journalists play an important role in enlightening the public and changing their opinions.

I salute all journalists who defend independent and free journalism and dedicate their entire lives to this cause.

Journalism is not as easy a profession as people think; on the contrary, they may need to conduct research under incredibly difficult conditions. Especially when an irregularity is detected and there are officials within the government involved, the government strictly opposes its exposure because if it comes to light, the public will react strongly against the government. So, the government prefers to silence journalists because it fears society's reaction, but I think it is impossible for them to do so. In democratic countries, they have never been able to silence journalists; on the contrary, the more they try to silence them, the more new journalists emerge. There are many independent journalists like me who will take on this duty in the public sphere, and their numbers will continue to grow.

In summary, greater support for journalists is crucial.

One day, when the government changes in Türkiye, all the irregularities committed by that government to date will be revealed. These exposed scandals will undoubtedly be investigated by an independent judiciary and will lead to them being brought before a court.

Whoever betrays their country must absolutely be tried as a 'traitor' and treated accordingly.

It is not right to call people patriots who are the lackeys of other countries, who act in accordance with their interests, and who sell out their country; these individuals will definitely be held accountable one day. Knowing this, the government tries to create fear in society and feed off this fear, because it knows there is no other way out.

I believe there will be some major changes in Türkiye very soon, and these changes will profoundly affect the government.

I hope everyone who betrays our country will one day face trial and be held accountable before justice.

The combined votes of the AKP, MHP, DEM, CHP, HÜDA PAR, and DSP reach 429. In the latest vote, with the support of the CHP, a total of 467 votes was reached, meaning the AKP has effectively conducted a test for amending the constitution.

The bill adopted in the Parliament within the scope of a 'Terror-Free Turkey' received 467 votes with the support of the CHP under its 'invalid' administration. On the same day, the CHP candidate won the deputy mayoral election in the Ankara Etimesgut Municipality with the backing of the AKP and MHP. Thus, the People's Alliance saw that it could change the constitution without a referendum with the CHP's support.

Erdoğan's Goal

When the framework law secured well over 400 votes, AKP deputies commented, 'The visa for a new constitution has now been obtained.' Once Parliament reconvenes on October 1, the new constitution will dominate the political agenda. Seeking to run for president again, Erdoğan is aiming for a system with no term limits through a constitutional amendment.

In this new process, the AKP, MHP, and DEM collaborated fully. The combined seat count of these three parties reaches a total of 379, consisting of 277 for the AKP, 56 for DEM, and 46 for the MHP. In this scenario, 45 of the CHP's deputies play a key role. If the CHP also supports this tripartite alliance, a total of 424 deputies is reached. Consequently, constitutional amendments could be made without the support of the Yeni Parti, Yeni Yol, and other small parties. With the addition of HÜDA PAR's 4 deputies and the DSP's 1 deputy, this figure rises to 429.

The Trial Run Was Held in Etimesgut

The clearest example of how the CHP might align with the People's Alliance (AKP-MHP) in the new era occurred the other day. During the deputy mayoral election in Etimesgut, candidates from the Yeni Parti and the CHP ran against each other. When council members from the CHP, AKP, and MHP acted in unison, the CHP candidate was elected over the Yeni Parti's candidate. Similar dynamics are at play in the Menderes and Üsküdar municipalities. The situation within the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (İBB) Council is also critical. If 10 CHP members were to switch sides, control of the İBB could also change hands.

 “Point Zero” of Politics: A Transition Scenario for Türkiye Post-Election

The end of an era and the quest for a new beginning; in Turkish political history, elections are not merely about the results emerging from the ballot box, but are also society’s search for a ‘new social contract.’ In particular, the allegations surrounding the use of public resources, tender processes, and the relationship with state institutions necessitate the establishment of not just a new government, but a new ‘order of law and transparency’ following the election.

So, after a process filled with such exhaustion and allegations, how can a new administration repair this damage?

The First 100 Days: Stopping the Bleeding When you take over the administration of a state, the first 100 days are not about ‘showcase projects’ but a period of ‘assessment and stabilization.’ The primary goal during this timeframe is to place the gears of the system on a rational and transparent foundation:

Taking an X-ray Transparently revealing the true dimensions of the Treasury and public liabilities.

Restoring Confidence Rebuilding the trust of market players and citizens in institutions like the Central Bank and TURKSTAT through merit-based appointments.

Administrative Pause Temporarily freezing large-scale expenditures until the flow of public resources is fully understood.

Legal Accountability or Revenge? This is the most critical threshold. In a country where social polarization is deep, there is a fine line between the demand that ‘corruption must be accounted for’ and the risk of a ‘new political revanchism.’

The accountability process must be conducted not with a thirst for revenge, but through ‘universal principles of law.’

The path to this requires:

• The establishment of special anti-corruption prosecutor’s offices that will not fall under political influence.
• The complete independence of institutions such as the Court of Accounts (Sayıştay) and MASAK.
• The implementation of asset recovery mechanisms that meet international standards.

Systemic Transformation: Facing the Truth Prosecuting individuals is merely a result. True success lies in closing the systemic loopholes — such as arbitrary appointments, opaque tender processes, and the lack of oversight — that created this ‘culture of corruption.’ For Türkiye, this is not just a change in government, but a process of institutions returning to a state of ‘collective reason.’

Social consensus is not a choice, but a necessity.

As we approach 2027, Türkiye’s greatest test is not just economic restoration, but the repair of social trust. Confronting the mistakes of the past should be viewed not as a tool for a rematch, but as a method for democratic cleansing while laying the foundations for the future.

A strong state survives not through its secrets, but through its transparency. The reconstruction of Türkiye will begin precisely on the day that this transparency is established. If the new administration fails to manage this process correctly, it is highly probable that they will not be re-elected in the following election.