The Gap between embargo rhetoric and reality

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On May 2, 2024, Türkiye announced that it had completely halted all trade relations with Israel. According to official statements, exports, imports, free zone trade, and transit trade were fully suspended, and Turkish-flagged and Israeli-flagged air and sea transportation were banned. However, international trade data, ship tracking systems, and independent research reveal that this embargo has remained largely on paper, with trade continuing through various indirect channels.

There is a massive gap between Türkiye's official data and Israel's official data

While the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) data shows no trade items with Israel after May 2, 2024, according to Trading Economics, which compiles the UN COMTRADE database, Israel's imports from Türkiye in 2025 were recorded at $2.12 billion. This figure places Türkiye as Israel's 10th largest import source, on par with the United Kingdom.

According to data from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), **exports from Türkiye to Israel in 2025 amounted to $924.1 million**. In just the January-February 2026 period, this figure reached $176.1 million.

The top product groups exported from Türkiye to Israel in 2025 were as follows.

The "confidential country" category and the transparency problem

Murat Emir, Deputy Group Chair of the Yeni Party, drew attention to the "Confidential Country" heading in TURKSTAT's foreign trade statistics, opened under the pretext of "commercial secrecy." Noting that this category showed a volume of $2.1 billion for 2025, Emir asked, "Was the export to Israel recorded under this 'confidential country' item?"

The Ministry of Trade, however, denied these claims, asserting that the customs system is completely closed to Israel and that no trade transactions have been registered for 23 months. The Ministry labeled the claims based on Israeli data as "disinformation."

Oil shipments covert flow through Ceyhan Port

One of the most striking contradictions is in oil shipments. Despite Türkiye's embargo decision, Azerbaijani oil continues to be shipped from the Ceyhan terminal to Israel.

According to data compiled by Reuters from ship tracking systems, the amount of Azerbaijani oil sent from Ceyhan to Israel increased by 31% in 2025, reaching 94,000 barrels per day. This was recorded as the highest level in the last three years.

Oil sent from Azerbaijan via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline meets approximately 30% of Israel's oil needs.

The shadow fleet ships disabling signals

International investigations reveal in detail how the embargo is being circumvented. According to research conducted by Middle East Eye in collaboration with the "No Port for Genocide" campaign.

Covert crude oil shipments to Israel between May 2024 and December 2025.

• 57 covert crude oil shipments
• Approximately 47 million barrels of oil
• Shipments were carried out via Türkiye
• Ships disabled their tracking systems (AIS), going into "dark" mode
• Egypt's Port Said was reported as the false destination

Military material shipments.

• 13 military shipments in 2025 (ammunition, machine gun components, defense materials belonging to Elbit Systems)

Coal shipments.

• 8 covert coal shipments between October 2023 and February 2026
• Total of 751,000 tons of South African coal

The role of Greek companies

The majority of covert shipments are carried out by Greek shipping companies. According to the research.

• Companies Thenamaris and Kyklades increased their share of oil shipments after the embargo from approximately 22% to over 91%
• Greek tankers circumvented Türkiye's Israel embargo via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline
• Ships violated international maritime rules by reporting false destinations and disabling tracking systems

The Palestinian route claim

The Ministry of Trade argues that the trade appearing in Israeli records stems from shipments made to the Palestinian Authority. According to the Ministry.

• Since Palestine has no port or customs of its own, shipments are technically made through Israeli ports
• Shipments are carried out with the approval of the Palestinian Ministry of National Economy
• There is approximately $50-60 million in monthly Palestinian trade.

However, Yeni Party's Emir claims that the Israeli statistical office does not include trade with the Palestinian Authority in the standard "Israeli foreign trade" tables, therefore the announced figures directly reflect Türkiye-Israel trade.

The Gap between official statements and industry data

Türkiye's Ministry of Trade maintains that the embargo is being fully implemented.

"Since May 2, 2024, trade with Israel has been zero. The customs system is closed."

However, international data and field research contradict this claim.

Political consequences and contradictory messages

The claims that trade is continuing create a serious credibility problem in Türkiye's foreign policy.

1. While harsh rhetoric against Israel continues in public, the continuation of trade relations behind the scenes causes foreign policy to be perceived as "two-faced."
2. U.S. Ambassador to Ankara Tom Barrack, at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, stated "Türkiye and Israel will not fight each other" implying that a trade agreement between the two countries could be made in the "not-too-distant future."
3. While Türkiye is seeking an Interpol "Red Notice" for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, the continuation of billions of dollars in trade during the same period raises questions about the sincerity of Türkiye's support for the Palestinian cause.

Available data clearly demonstrates a deep chasm between Türkiye's "no trade with Israel" rhetoric and international trade data. Despite official statements.

• UN COMTRADE data shows a $2.12 billion trade volume in 2025
• Israeli official data records $924 million in exports in 2025
• Ship tracking systems confirm that covert oil shipments from Ceyhan port to Israel are continuing
• "Shadow fleet" operations conducted through Greek companies reveal that the embargo is being systematically circumvented
• The appearance of $2.1 billion in TURKSTAT's "Confidential Country" category deepens the transparency problem

This contradiction raises serious questions about the sincerity of Türkiye's support for the Palestinian cause, its foreign policy credibility, and its commitment to international obligations. This chasm between harsh public rhetoric and the trade relations that continue in reality represents a significant test for the future stance and reputation of Turkish foreign policy.

Note: This article is based on publicly available trade data, shipping records, and reporting from various news sources. All figures are cited from their respective sources and are presented for informational purposes.

The Neighbor's Fire

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As of 2026, with U.S. - Iran military tensions continuing to escalate, the Middle East has once again been pushed to the brink of war. As a neighbor sharing a land border of over 550 kilometers with Iran and heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy corridors, Türkiye though not a direct party to the conflict feels the scorching heat of this "neighbor's fire" acutely. The U.S. - Iran tension not only impacts Türkiye's already fragile economy through energy prices and trade routes but also poses serious challenges to Ankara's national strategies at the security and geopolitical levels.

The economic transmission mechanism from energy prices to the "Bread Basket"

Türkiye is heavily dependent on imported oil and natural gas, making its economy highly sensitive to fluctuations in international energy prices. The threat posed by the U.S. - Iran conflict to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz immediately triggered anxiety over energy supply within Türkiye. As early as the initial stages of the escalation, Turkish citizens formed long queues at gas stations out of fear of rising fuel prices and subsequent developments proved these concerns to be well-founded.

Looking at macroeconomic data, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek acknowledged that war-induced oil price increases have created "negative" pressure on the economy. According to official assessments, if the average oil price remains around $85 per barrel in 2026, Türkiye's inflation rate is expected to rise by an additional 3.6 to 4.4 percentage points, while economic growth is projected to slow by 0.6 to 1.5 percentage points. Given that annual inflation stood at 31.5% in February 2026, this additional burden is nothing short of pouring more weight onto an already strained system.

This macroeconomic pressure manifests itself in the most tangible and direct way possible through bread. In Turkish culture, "bread money" (ekmek parası) is synonymous with one's livelihood. However, the U.S.-Israel axis of military operations pushed up energy and flour prices, forcing bread prices to rise sharply. In Ankara, for example, the price of a loaf of sourdough bread jumped from 95 lira to 120 lira. After remaining unchanged for eight months, bread prices across the country were raised by nearly 17%. As local economists have pointed out, the effects of war are not a distant abstraction but a concrete reality squeezing every Turkish family's "bread basket."

The security and foreign policy dilemma between mediation, gedging, and precaution

Faced with a conflict on its doorstep, Türkiye's security and foreign policy posture reveals a complex and pragmatic character.

First, active mediation and diplomatic hedging form the core of its strategy. Türkiye has explicitly opposed any military intervention against Iran and has offered to play a mediating role between Washington and Tehran. Turkish foreign ministers have engaged in intensive diplomatic contacts with Iran and other regional actors, even offering to host potential U.S. - Iran talks on Turkish soil. This mediation effort reflects both a genuine desire to preserve regional stability and Türkiye's broader hedging strategy of balancing between East and West while enhancing its geopolitical influence.

Second, preventing a refugee influx and securing the border constitute Türkiye's most pressing concern. Having already experienced the massive refugee wave from the Syrian civil war, Türkiye is acutely aware of the socio-economic burden that a new wave from Iran could impose. Accordingly, Turkish officials have stated that they are "prepared to strengthen border security measures with Iran" including the construction of physical barriers if necessary. At the same time, Ankara has firmly denied allegations of "plans to invade Iranian territory," emphasizing its respect for its neighbor's sovereignty.

Finally, the Kurdish question has resurfaced as a critical strategic concern. Türkiye fears that Kurdish groups in Iran could capitalize on regional instability to grow stronger, potentially energizing separatist movements among Kurdish populations in Iraq, Syria, and within Türkiye itself. This is precisely why Ankara is eager to see the conflict de-escalate and end quickly, rather than drag on or expand.

In summary, the U.S. - Iran military conflict represents a "neighbor's fire with no winners" for Türkiye. Economically, it strikes at the country's fragile macroeconomic foundation through energy price shocks, directly raising the cost of living for ordinary citizens. In security terms, it brings direct threats ranging from potential refugee flows to the spillover of Kurdish-related instability. For these reasons, Türkiye is simultaneously pursuing a mediating role to lower tensions while reinforcing its border defenses to protect its own interests. The future trajectory of this conflict will continue to profoundly shape Türkiye's domestic and foreign policy in the period ahead.

An analysis of Osman Nuri Koçtürk's "Gıda Emperyalizmi"

In an era where global food prices fluctuate wildly and supply chains are weaponized, the insights of Turkish scientist Osman Nuri Koçtürk remain remarkably prescient. Writing in 1966 and republished in 2009 by the Turkish Chamber of Agricultural Engineers Koçtürk laid bare a chilling reality: food has become the most effective weapon of modern imperialism. His analysis, grounded in decades of scientific observation and personal experience, reveals how developed nations have replaced military occupation with economic manipulation through agricultural policy.

The book opens with a stark observation that resonates even more powerfully today: "Countries are managed through oil, but people are managed through food." This fundamental premise drives Koçtürk's exploration of what he terms "Food Imperialism" the systematic use of food aid, agricultural surpluses, and trade policies to create dependency and extract wealth from developing nations.

The Mechanism of Food Imperialism

Koçtürk's central thesis rests on a simple biological truth: human labor and intellectual capacity depend entirely on adequate nutrition. By controlling a nation's food supply, imperial powers can control its workforce, its health, its educational outcomes, and ultimately its political will.

The author identifies four essential factors of production Man, Money, Materials, and Machinery which American economists summarized as the "4M" formula. While traditional colonialism seized territory through military force, the new colonialism focuses on controlling these four elements, particularly the human element, through economic means.

Perhaps the most striking illustration in the book is Koçtürk's "mouse cage" metaphor: when 40 mice are confined with precisely enough food for 40, they reproduce peacefully. But as the population grows while food remains constant, the colony descends into chaos fighting, cannibalism, and social breakdown. When the population drops back to 40, peace returns. This, Koçtürk argues, is precisely what happens to developing nations whose food supplies are artificially constrained or manipulated.

The Turkish case study: a three-act play

Koçtürk dedicates significant attention to Türkiye's experience, presenting it as a textbook example of food imperialism in action, staged in three distinct acts.

Act one: the meat and milk game

Türkiye once had a robust livestock sector. To dismantle it, imperial powers flooded the market with subsidized powdered milk and frozen poultry at prices below local production costs. Domestic producers were bankrupted, and Turkish citizens gradually shifted from animal protein to a grain-based diet. The result: a population physically weaker and more dependent on imported staples.

Act two: the wheat game

Before World War II, Türkiye was a wheat exporter. Through the US Public Law 480 program, subsidized American wheat was poured into the Turkish market. While this initially appeared as generous aid, its true purpose was to undercut Turkish farmers, who abandoned wheat cultivation for more profitable cash crops like tobacco, cotton, and sugar beets. Within a decade, Türkiye once a breadbasket had become one of the world's largest wheat importers.

Act three: the oil game

Türkiye produces some of the world's finest olive oil. Yet American soybean interests, unable to sell their surplus domestically or in Europe, targeted Türkiye as a new market. Initially, they offered high prices for Turkish olive oil while simultaneously flooding the country with cheap soybean oil. The population was gradually weaned off olive oil and onto margarine. Once this dependency was established, the imperial powers reversed course: they stopped buying Turkish olive oil, drove down its price, and demanded dollars for the soybean oil they had previously offered cheaply. The Turkish government was forced to cancel the agreement, but the damage to the domestic olive oil industry and public health was severe.

The public health consequences

Koçtürk presciently connected these economic manipulations to devastating health outcomes. As margarine consumption rose, so did cardiovascular disease. He cites official Turkish statistics showing a steady increase in heart-related deaths throughout the 1950s and early 1960s. While US scientists and policymakers publicly acknowledged the health risks of hydrogenated oils, their Turkish counterparts influenced by commercial interests actively suppressed this information.

The author does not limit his critique to Western powers. He notes that Eastern bloc nations employ similar tactics, offering vodka factories and cultural exchanges as entry points before establishing economic dependency. The choice between East and West, he warns, is a false one for developing nations.

Disturbing Confessions

Perhaps the most powerful section of Koçtürk's work is his documentation of Western policymakers' frank admissions about food's strategic role. He quotes Don Paarlberg, the first coordinator of the PL 480 food aid program, who stated: "Food given as foreign aid destroys the agricultural markets of recipient countries and discourages their producers. The people of these nations have become victims of 'Food Imperialism.'"

Even more chillingly, Texas Senator Wright Patman declared: "Of all the weapons ever used in international warfare, food is the most effective. The United States possesses this weapon and will maintain its superiority in using it longer than any other nation."

Koçtürk also documents the proposal of Dr. Joseph Goldzieher, who suggested adding sterilizing agents to the public water supply of developing nations to control population growth a proposal that, while rejected, demonstrates the extreme lengths to which imperial thinking can extend.

Solutions and Path Forward

Koçtürk does not simply diagnose the problem; he offers a prescription for liberation. His recommendations are remarkably clear.

1. National Awareness: The first step is public education about food imperialism and its mechanisms. Democracy requires an informed citizenry that can resist manipulation.
2. Food Self-Sufficiency: Developing nations must prioritize agricultural development that meets domestic nutritional needs before pursuing industrial expansion. Without food independence, all other forms of development remain vulnerable.
3. Cultural Defense: Food is not merely fuel; it is an expression of cultural identity. The replacement of traditional foods with imported alternatives is a form of cultural colonization that must be resisted.
4. Strategic Vigilance: Governments must establish rigorous inspection regimes for all imported food, recognizing that contamination whether chemical, biological, or ideological poses a national security threat.
5. Careful Foreign Relations: Neither Western nor Eastern powers offer genuine partnership to developing nations. True independence lies in self-reliance and strategic neutrality.

Contemporary Relevance

Koçtürk's analysis, written during the Cold War, seems almost prophetic in its relevance to today's global food system. The consolidation of global grain markets among a handful of multinational corporations, the use of food aid as a lever for political influence, and the devastating impact of price volatility on food-importing developing nations all confirm his central thesis.

The recent resurgence of "food sovereignty" movements demanding that nations control their own food production represents the kind of resistance Koçtürk advocated. Similarly, growing awareness of how processed foods, particularly seed oils, affect public health echoes his warnings about margarine.

Osman Nuri Koçtürk was a veterinarian and biochemist who understood that nutrition is not merely a biological necessity but a political question of profound importance. His work demonstrates that food independence is not a luxury for developing nations but a prerequisite for genuine sovereignty.

In a world where supply chain disruptions become weapons and where the right to adequate nutrition remains unmet for billions, Koçtürk's message transcends its original context. His call for public awareness, self-reliance, and resistance to economic manipulation remains as urgent today as it was in 1966. The new colonialism, it appears, operates not through armies and battleships, but through the subtle control of what we eat and what we cannot grow ourselves.

"Man is a biological creature as much as he is a social one. Without adequate food, no society can develop, and without food independence, no nation can truly be free."
— Osman Nuri Koçtürk